Why Obama Wants a GOP Takeover in November

Photo: Charles Dharapak/AP/File

Apparently we were supposed to be surprised when Robert Gibbs laid his cards on the table a few weeks ago, stating that there were “enough seats in play” this November to see the GOP “take control” in November.

No kidding. As if the NYT hasn’t had an interactive demonstration of this on their website for weeks. Never mind the fact that Sarah Palin has been taking aim at Democrat representatives the minute Obama’s pen signed the Health Care reform bill into law. Don’t forget the country’s (read: the media’s) new anti-incumbent obsession; from special elections, primaries, to the increasing relevance of the Tea Party.

The reality is, however, that a GOP takeover could be extremely beneficial to the Obama presidency.

Yes, yes I know. Republicans will be hell-bent on forcing the President to veto a Congressional repeal or de-funding of Health Care reform, and Wall Street reform, just for starters. The political theater of moments like this will far outweigh the original fanfare that associated the passing of these laws, believe it or not.

After the initial awkward period, where the Republicans will get their licks in, the GOP will be obliged to get some work done, meeting in the middle with the President. Being the party of “No” has worked well for Republicans in these first two years with a Democratic president, but continuing the stalemate leading up to 2012 could be disastrous and make them easy targets in the future.

The White House will have to be game as well.

This means reengaging Lindsey Graham to save a still plausible climate bill. To do that, there would also have to be some give and take on immigration, since at the moment Graham is blazing a different, more aggressive path on the issue. Because immigration is turning into a votes issue there is the possibility that discussions would have to (gasp) include the amnesty issue. There will also be the opportunity to have a reasonable debate concerning the expiration of the GOP’s beloved Bush tax cuts in the broader and more measured discussion about economy recovery.

Even with the passing of comprehensive Health Care Reform, legitimate exit strategies for two unpopular wars, Wall Street reform, progress on Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and the possibility of the Bush Tax Cuts expiring, liberals are still displeased with the president. The big picture is still disguised from the left, who have a hard time understanding that even a watered down Obama agenda is still more fairly progressive

Consider, however, the crew the president is charged with pleasing. Many are still furious at the President for not pressing for a public option in the final draft of the Health Care reform law, and some are still pushing for it. Some believe Wall Street reform wasn’t. There is anger that Don’t Ask Don’t Tell has not been repealed. Obama seemed to tangibly feel the pressure on this one, reacting to a heckler on the issue during a spring address for Barbara Boxer. Gates publicly began his due diligence on the matter shortly thereafter, leading to a May vote in the House and one soon in the Senate.

Given the image problems his party is having, Obama, despite a relatively successful early first team on the legislative front, might benefit from not being so handcuffed to the more outspoken and controversial members of his party. I’m particularly fond of Maddow’s point in the above video regarding “room for liberal” disappointment in all Obama’s accomplishments and how that shouldn’t tarnish the achievements themselves.

In a political sense, Obama might be more readily equipped to battle and negotiate with his political opposites than those within his own party.

Consider his performance in late January, going toe-to-toe with Republicans at the GOP issues retreat, televised in its entirety on national TV.

Here we saw the return of the crafty Constitutional Law professor, “Wrong-footing his questioners to their face with some stern rebuttal and in some instances quoting their own positions back to them to highlight the contradictions”.

The candid and frank nature of the event was remarkable. There was an underlying sense of respect, albeit tense, between the president and his GOP adversaries. Though the cameras were trained on Obama the entire time, you can imagine some Republicans in attendance nudging their neighbors and whispering, “I gotta give it to him, he’s good”, the way high school football coaches do when they know their outmatched by a cross town rival they’re sworn to hate. That he could get the GOP to applaud and at times laugh at anything he was saying, much less on the policy front, was remarkable.

It’s unlikely the GOP will allow cameras to roll on an exchange like the issues retreat again. However, their presumed ascendance in Congress this November will force them to be held accountable for their proposed Congressional agenda, due in late September. This means having their plans dissected day and night in the first part of the new Congress.

Imagine Obama, the “Change” candidate, ironically turning that notion on its head; making speeches claiming: “The Republicans came into office in a frenzy, promising change…well I dunno about you, but I’ve just seen more of the same from these guys…”

November is a long way away. It’s possible the Dems might not lose as many seats as expected. Will the Obama camp come out  relatively unscathed from another political land-mine, holding majorities (however slim) in both houses when it once seemed out of the question? Obama has demonstrated incredible resilience his supercharged political career. This November and the ensuing Congressional session could be another test to that very durability.

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